2012 was the year of the tablet. Although final numbers are still rolling in, a recent report from International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that the worldwide tablet market has reached an astounding 122.3 million units, nearly double the number from 2011.
With that kind of momentum, what can we expect to see in the coming year for tablets? Let’s take a look.
Size Does Matter
Large-screen tablets like the iPad still dominate the market with an estimated 59% share, but according to IHS iSuppli, smaller tablets are taking an ever bigger piece of the pie. iSuppli estimates that just under 34 million small tablets (those with screens eight inches or less) were shipped in 2012, a considerable jump from 17 million in 2011. And it’s believed that this number will double, possibly accounting for at least 50% of the market in 2013.
Although smaller tablets like the Amazon Kindle Fire and the Barnes & Noble Nook HD proved popular in 2012, perhaps the biggest surprise was the Google Nexus 7. Released in June, the tiny tablet showed steady growth, and is now selling an estimated one million units every month.
But the Nexus is still small potatoes compared to Apple and its 7.9-inch iPad mini. Despite a significant price premium over comparable Android tablets, the mini sold an estimated 8 million units in its first two months on the market, and some say it would have been even more were it not for a touchscreen supply problem. Naturally, the rumors of a mini 2 with a retina display are already swirling, with the possibility of a new model as early as March 2013.
Why are smaller tablets becoming more popular? Aside from the lower price compared to larger tablets, IDC analyst Tom Mainelli says, “It’s lighter, easier to hold with one hand and certainly a more mobile device.” To that end, IDC’s research shows that larger tablets are generally used at home on Wi-Fi, whereas the smaller tablets can easily be thrown into a purse or coat pocket for use on-the-go with cellular service. Essentially, Steve Jobs’ presumption that seven-inch tablets are “tweeners,” “too big to compete with a smartphone; too small to compete with an iPad,” turns out to be exactly what many consumers want.
low Money, No Problems
Until this year, tablets weren’t cheap. The going price, set by the original iPad, was $500 for the low-end, Wi-Fi-only model of everything from the HP TouchPad to the Blackberry Playbook to the Motorola Xoom. But with the release of the seven-inch Kindle Fire, the Nexus 7 and the Nook HD, the price wars have begun.
With many smaller tablets hovering around that $200 “impulse buy” sweet spot, they’re now more accessible to a broader range of customers who have been snatching them up in droves. If the trend holds, 2013 could see additional price drops as the market becomes even more crowded, especially in the popular seven-inch form factor.
Perhaps the first out of the gate will be Acer, with a rumored Wi-Fi-only, seven-inch tablet called the Iconia B1, which will retail for around $99. At the moment, it’s believed that the tablet will only be made available in foreign markets, including China, where it’s designed to compete against a bevy of inexpensive, no-name “white box” tablets that have been flooding the country over the last few years. But if the B1 is a success, there’s no reason it couldn’t find a few nibbles of market share on different shores. At that price point, it could marketed as a “disposable” tablet for kids or for those who only require tablet mobility on occasion.
Android Taking a Bigger Bite of the Apple
In 2010, Apple had a very secure 87% of tablet market share. But as expected with increased competition, that number has dwindled ever since, and IDC estimates Apple’s hold has slipped to 53.8% this year. At the same time, Android’s market share has risen to 42.7%, thanks to its use in the popular Nexus, Kindle Fire and Nook devices.
As more Android-based tablets are set to release in the coming months, Finvista Advisors’ analyst Sameer Singh believes that 2013 will likely mark the year iOS will lose it’s tablet dominance to the little green robot. However, that projection is based on an 18% drop in iPad sales for Q3 2012, when people were waiting for Apple’s iPad mini announcement. Now that the mini has been released and deemed a bona fide success, it’s unclear if 2013 will be the tipping point, after all Aside from iOS and Android, a dark horse could have an impact in the years to come: Windows. By 2016, IDC estimates that iOS and Android will still be on top with 49.7% and 39.7%, respectively, but they place Redmond’s native son as a scrappy up-and-comer with 10.3% market share. Although the first round of Surface tablets equipped with Windows RT has barely registered on consumers’ radar, the 2013 release of the more powerful Surface Pro with Windows 8 could have more of an impact.
Samsung-Flexible-Phones
But don’t cry for me, Cupertino. Even if Android does overtake iOS in 2013, Apple still sold 58 million iPads for the 2012 fiscal year, far more than any single Android tablet manufacturer. So it’s safe to say the iPad will be around for the foreseeable future.
Tablets > Laptops
For decades, the only way to get portable computing power was to lug around a laptop. But as tablet apps and the cloud have simultaneously become more powerful, the uncontested reign of the laptop may soon come to an end.
In December, industry analyst DisplaySearch found that, of the nine largest laptop companies, only four — Sony, Asus, Lenovo and Apple — expect to sell more laptops in 2013 than in 2012, but not by much. Lenovo is the most confident, with projected sales of 31 million, versus 27 million in 2012. Dell, on the other hand, is expecting its laptop sales to plummet to 16 million, down from 25.3 million in 2012. Overall, the market shows an estimated drop from 187.4 million in 2012 to a projected 173.2 million in the coming year.
When you consider that IDC forecasts 2013 tablet sales to be as high as 172 million units, it won’t take much for laptops to topple.
